This year, academic colleagues from around the country have been using British Election Study data to inform public opinion – and in the process have been hitting the news headlines. Professors Jane Green, Geoff Evans, Ed Fieldhouse and Cees Van Der Eijk of the BES Scientific Leadership Team have appeared in the media providing opportunities for BES to get behind the political headlines.
Our highlights include a front page story timed with our successful event on 9 December in the Daily Telegraph entitled Millions of Tory voters to pick Ukip and a Page 2 story in the Sun on Sunday on the same topic – but there was major coverage in many of the national newspapers. That weekend the distinguished writers Andrew Rawnsley and Matthew Parris both praised BES in their respective columns. Following the publication of the Guardian’s Page 4 story, we were amazed to see 246 comments by 7am.
Another highlight was when BES Co-Director Professor Jane Green appeared as a commentator on the BBC’s election special last May with David Dimbleby.
We’ve also been picked up in the Times Red Box, the New Statesman’s popular blog called May2015.com as well as James Kirkup’s blogs in the Daily Telegraph. We’ve appeared on BBC Breakfast, the World at One, BBC Radio Four’s Westminster Hour, Six O’Clock News and the BBC News Channel.
A BES study into Ukip in May was widely reported in the media, including a page 2 story in the Daily Express, and further coverage in the Telegraph, Financial Times and BBC Radio Four and Two.
BES research findings were widely covered during the Scottish Referendum campaign, appearing in most national newspapers North and south of the border as well the major broadcasters.
Our new film, Understanding British Democracy has been getting great reviews since it was launched on YouTube on 9 December. We’ve already had over 1,250 views – so we’re pleased about that too.
Here is an edited list of some of our highlights:
BES EVENT 9 DECEMBER
- The Sun on Sunday: Ukip Mps blow p2
- Westminster Hour
- News Statesman. Blog by professor Jane Green
- Daily Telegraph Front page: Millions of Tory voters to pick Ukip
- Guardian p4 Liberal Democrats facing even bigger wipeout than expected Junior coalition partners could have fewer than 20 MPs after 2015 general election – compared with the 57 elected in 2010
- Daily Mail P6:Ukip is ‘less of a threat to Labour MPs’: Party’s support is overwhelmingly formed of voters who chose Conservative in 2010
- Guardian: Andrew Sparrow live blog
- Daily Express: Ukip to snatch two million Conservative voters in next election
- Daily Telegraph Lord Mandelson: Labour risks ‘great self-destruction’ by depending on current supporters. New Labour architect urges party to reach wider constituency as research shows party lost working-class support in Tony Blair years The Labour peer’s words came after a respected academic study found that Labour had lost many of its working-class supporters during Mr Blair’s years in power, particularly among those who were put off by the then-government’s immigration policies. Research by the British Election Study found that hundreds of thousands of voters who abandoned the party at the 2005 and 2010 elections, often going to the Conservatives, were now planning to vote Ukip at the 2015 poll
- Daily record The Tories could lose as many as 2million votes to UKIP at the general election – one in five of those who voted Tory in 2010, experts warned yesterday. UKIP is also predicted to pick up 700,000 Lib Dem voters and 500,000 Labour supporters at the polls next May, research by the British Election Study found. Prof Geoff Evans, who led the study, said the data showed “quite clearly” that the Conservatives “need to worry most about the threat of UKIP”.
- Independent Ukip ‘twice as dangerous’ to Tory election prospects as to Labour’s
- Prof Andrew Russell appears on the World at One, BBC Radio Four
- FT Fracturing of UK politics complicates general election
- The Week Grim prediction for Lib Dems makes new coalition less likely The issue is likely to be closely scrutinised at the launch in London today of the British Election Study. The large academic project involving Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham universities is funded by the Economic and Science Research Council.
- CITY A.M. Conservatives should be more worried about Ukip switchers than Labour ahead … – Ukip could be more damaging to the Conservatives than Labour, taking more than two million votes from the party at next year’s general election according to the latest political research. More Conservative voters could be swayed towards Ukip than Labour or …
- Spectator.co.uk (blog) The Tory voters who are still vulnerable to Ukip – 12 hours ago Today’s conclusion from the British Election Study that Ukip will hurt the Tories far more than it will damage Labour at the General Election is unsurprising, but still important as its warning that the Conservative party could lose nearly two million voters to Nigel …
- Conservatives should form a minority Government to avoid ‘complicated … Telegraph.co.uk – 14 hours ago Lord Cooper said the parties would be faced with a different choices in 2015 than they were faced with after the 2010 election when “sense of a sort of jeopardy of the economic situation” made minority government an unlikely option. The Conservatives fell …
- Daily Star
- National Review So what’s going on? Doing the math ahead of the British election in May is very tricky (cramming a whole bunch of competitive parties into a first-past-the-post voting system will do that), but the way things are going it still looks (despite the rise of “red UKIP”) as if it will be the Conservatives that take the main hit from the rise of UKIP (for some discussion as to how this forecast can be reconciled with UKIP’s growing success with “old Labour” voters, this British Election Study has an interesting take).
14 Dec and 13 December
- Observer: Andrew Rawnsley’s column devoted to what he calls a stimulating series if presentations at the British Election Study event on 9 December, which he attended.
- Times Saturday: In Matthew Parris column, he writes about the British Election Study event he attended on 9 December, and mentions Manchester’s Professor Jane Green’s research, which he says, shatters the Ukip-as-Heineken myth: Ukip, she finds, have had no more success in reaching persistent non-voters than Labour or the Tories. Professor Green gave one of the 10 presentations at the event.
UKIP RESEARCH, MAY
- Daily Express http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/474420/Half-Ukip-s-Euro-voters-pledge-to-stay-loyal-to-Nigel-Farage-in-the-2015-General-Election (Page 2)
- Daily Telegraph General election 2015: Will this be Ukip’s year? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10811622/General-election-2015-Will-this-be-Ukips-year.html
- Political Betting Will UKIP Euro voters support party in following general election? 2009 compared with 2014http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/07/ukip-euro-voters-are-more-than-twice-as-likely-to-say-theyll-support-party-in-general-election-compared-with-five-years-ago/
- Financial Times Most Ukip voters plan to stick with party in 2015 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f7a1cfbe-d52c-11e3-9187-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3116ycZ66
- Huffington Post Mehdi’s Morning Memo: Here Comes Helmer http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/06/mehdis-morning-memo_162_n_5276808.html
- BBC Radio Two: Bulletins in morning
- BBC Radio Four Today Programme bulletins
- BBC Local Radio (17 stations)
- BBC News Online: UKIP to ‘retain more support’ in run-up to 2015 election by Chris Mason
- Sky News
- Six O’Clock News
- BBC News Channel
- Westminster Hour
SCOTTISH REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN, SUMMER
- Huffington Post
- BBC Scotland
- The Scotsman reports findings from the British Election Study which says that undecided are moving towards ‘Yes’, but not enough to win Scotland’s referendum vote.
- Daily Telegraph: Ukip voters will make Ed Miliband Prime Minister, Labour claims
- Daily Record http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nearly-three-quarters-scots-want-more-3710722
- The Herald http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/most-scots-unaware-holyrood-is-to-get-new-tax-powers.24519895
- The Scotsman http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/half-of-scots-believe-no-vote-means-more-powers-1-3448278
- The Herald: http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/devo-plus-option-wins-widespread-support-in-new-indy-study.1403014437
- The Financial Times http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dfda9432-16ff-11e4-8617-00144feabdc0.html#axzz38qsuYgvE
- The Guardian: Boost for Scottish independence as undecided voters switch to yes camp
Also appeared in , often in under the headline Undecided ‘more likely to vote Yes’ , the Daily Record ,Daily Star, Daily Express, Daily Mail and The Times,
THE IMPACT OF THE STUDENT VOTE, NOVEMBER
- The Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/11263720/Collapse-in-Lib-Dem-student-vote-puts-Cleggs-seat-at-risk.html
- Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3b77f5a6-7884-11e4-b518-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3KdVDkmXE
- Conservative Home http://www.conservativehome.com/thinktankcentral/2014/12/nick-hillman-how-students-may-vote-next-year-and-how-much-difference-theyll-make.html
- The Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/dec/01/university-fee-hike-to-cost-coalition-in-marginal-seats-researchers-find
- BBC online http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-30252713
- The Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/new-election-rules-affecting-students-could-make-or-break-nick-cleggs-chances-in-2015-9894496.html
- Daily Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/11263720/Collapse-in-Lib-Dem-student-vote-puts-Cleggs-seat-at-risk.html
OTHER FINDINGS FROM BES DATA
- The Guardian: Five things we can learn from Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box
- Liberal Democrat Voice Study shows that voters in Liberal Democrat seats trust their MPs more
- Mike Smithson at Political Betting talks about data from the British Election Study that shows how well thought of MPs are in their own constituencies.
- News Post Leader No goodwill for the opposition
- Daily Telegraph: Who would play Nigel Farage in a film?
- Times Red Box: The level of voter turnover is far higher than in previous electoral cycles. Data from the British Election Study shows that only about 25 per cent of voters switched their vote in the 2010 general election.
- BBC Online: The strange truth about how and why we vote
- The Guardian: How Ukip’s support has been evolving after the European elections The British Election Study has revealed that although Ukip’s appeal is widening, it still has to convert this into votes in 2015
- Times Higher Education: Campus news