News - 2015 General Election
Three common errors in interpreting voters’ choices
By the BES FactCheck Team Cees van der Eijk (BES and Nottingham) ,Stuart Fox (Nottingham), Mike Addelman (BES and Manchester) Annemarie Walter (Nottingham), Jonathan Rose (Nottingham), Fanni Toth (Nottingham), Fiona Williams (Nottingham), Katia Kolpinskaya (Nottingham), Josh Townsley (Nottingham), Tom Loughran (Manchester) During election night, we…
ITV’s Election analysis by Prof Jane Green
The British Election Study is working with ITV to bring in-depth analysis and understanding of the most unpredictable election in living memory. The British Election Study has provided an unparalleled source of election data and analysis since it began in 1964. ITV are releasing our…
General Election Constituency Forecast Update
By Ed Fieldhouse and Jon Mellon In March we blogged the British Election Study ‘nowcast’ based on preliminary data from Wave 4. We now publish an updated ‘nowcast’ to reflect the latest BES data and the most recent opinion polls. This gives our best estimate…
Will younger voters turnout to vote? By Ed Fieldhouse
There has been a lot of speculation about the turnout of young voters in tomorrow’s General Election. In 2010 only an estimated 44% of the under 25s voted compared to 65% overall. But with a close run and unpredictable election turnout may well be higher…
BES FactCheck #GE2015
This page will be regularly updated on election night to fact check the claims and counter claims of politicians in real time. A British Election Study team led by co-Director Professor Cees van Der Eijk from The University of Nottingham’s will be scanning the election…
Join BES Fact Check on election night
Join BES Fact Check on election night Britain’s most detailed study of electoral behaviour is to fact check the claims and counter claims of politicians in real time on General Election night. A British Election Study team led by The University of Nottingham’s Professor Cees…
British Election Study 2015 General Election Constituency Forecast
By Jon Mellon and Ed Fieldhouse Because of its large sample size, spread across the 632 constituencies of Great Britain, the British Election Study Internet Panel is a valuable tool for understanding how voters are switching between parties. We have developed a BES ‘nowcast’ model…
The Ongoing Independence Referendum in Scotland: Implications for 7th May 2015
By Jane Green and Chris Prosser There is no doubting that the Independence Referendum has had a profound impact on vote intentions for May’s general election. British Election Study (BES) data reveals the depth of that impact, in particular the impact of the transfer of…
The Ebb and Flow: How the flow-of-the-vote adds up to a Liberal...
Most political commentators agree on one thing about the forthcoming General Election: it is too close to call. A conference on forecasting the 2015 British General Election, held at the London School of Economics today reveals that twelve forecasting teams (including the BES) all predict…
The Impact of Coalition on the 2015 General Election
By Jane Green and Ed Fieldhouse There has been a lot of talk about how the 2015 election is different: more voters than ever before look set to vote against the major Westminster parties; the fragmentation of the two-party system enhances uncertainty about the assumptions…