News - Uncategorized
Is Nigel Farage a Threat to Labour?
Jon Mellon and Geoffrey Evans Nigel Farage’s Brexit party has had a very volatile start. The party went from nothing to winning the European Parliament elections in a matter of months, and has now fallen back to more modest levels after Boris Johnson became Prime…
Three common errors in interpreting voters’ choices
By the BES FactCheck Team Cees van der Eijk (BES and Nottingham) ,Stuart Fox (Nottingham), Mike Addelman (BES and Manchester) Annemarie Walter (Nottingham), Jonathan Rose (Nottingham), Fanni Toth (Nottingham), Fiona Williams (Nottingham), Katia Kolpinskaya (Nottingham), Josh Townsley (Nottingham), Tom Loughran (Manchester) During election night, we…
ITV’s Election analysis by Prof Jane Green
The British Election Study is working with ITV to bring in-depth analysis and understanding of the most unpredictable election in living memory. The British Election Study has provided an unparalleled source of election data and analysis since it began in 1964. ITV are releasing our…
General Election Constituency Forecast Update
By Ed Fieldhouse and Jon Mellon In March we blogged the British Election Study ‘nowcast’ based on preliminary data from Wave 4. We now publish an updated ‘nowcast’ to reflect the latest BES data and the most recent opinion polls. This gives our best estimate…
Will younger voters turnout to vote? By Ed Fieldhouse
There has been a lot of speculation about the turnout of young voters in tomorrow’s General Election. In 2010 only an estimated 44% of the under 25s voted compared to 65% overall. But with a close run and unpredictable election turnout may well be higher…
The Ebb and Flow: How the flow-of-the-vote adds up to a Liberal...
Most political commentators agree on one thing about the forthcoming General Election: it is too close to call. A conference on forecasting the 2015 British General Election, held at the London School of Economics today reveals that twelve forecasting teams (including the BES) all predict…
Jane Green on BBC Radio Four’s WATO
Hear Prof Jane Green speaking about her research which finds that the experience of coalition could have a ‘profound impact’ on the electoral success of Ukip, the Greens and the SNP. It was broadcast on BBC Radio Four’s The World at One on 27 March
Conservative Assets and Liabilities
By Jane Green and Will Jennings This blog is based on analysis prepared for the Political Studies Association media briefing held on 24 March 2015. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of the Conservative party entering the general election campaign to reflect upon what may…
Labour need to tempt not terrify the voters they have lost to...
By Dr Steve Fisher Abstract: This post summarises the main points from the national and constituency polls in Scotland before discussing what might help Labour north of the border. The British Election Study survey evidence suggests that Scottish Labour MPs will not be saved by…
Studying politics? Come play in the Data Playground
The British Election Study has now made its data collected in 2014 available to anyone who wants to know what the nation thinks about politics. Called the Data Playground, the politically interested can now get their hands on BES data, for free, without the need for specialist…